☀️ A pre-Election Day pep talk

Hey hey, happy Monday.

This week feels like an absolute mountain, but we will climb it together.

BTW, you can catch me on The Compound’s post-election special with my colleagues Ben, Josh and Michael. We’re gonna talk about the election results and what they mean for markets (and more importantly, how they should — or shouldn’t — change your investing approach). Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET on The Compound’s YouTube channel. Click the bell if you want an alert when we’re live.

Also! I’m a Business Insider contributor now, so you’ll see me share exclusive thoughts there from time to time. My first piece on why millennials are holding so much cash went live a few days ago. Read it here.

Finally, smash the button below to share OptimistiCallie with a friend 😊

I have a lot of nerdy things to tell you about the economy.

Thoughts about how companies still aren’t hiring people, but the vibes are shifting and productivity is soaring (all true).

Important stuff that I think would ring as hollow as “cautiously optimistic” if I were to publish a buttoned-up, analysis-laden report for you this week.

Because let’s face it, we’re all trudging through pre-Election Day dread right now.

Smiling to our coworkers, but frantically texting our friends about early voting data and wild comments on both sides. Saying I’m fine! through clenched teeth and panicked breaths as you watch the sun set at 4 p.m. because daylight savings time is over and darkness is here.

Friends, I want to be the best, most insightful Wall Street strategist for you. I want this newsletter to be your go-to for questions about investing, the economy, markets, or those quirky jargon terms.

But I never want to be that out-of-touch voice that rattles off numbers and logic when you need something more. 

I live in Charlotte, N.C.

Mecklenburg County.

The biggest metropolitan area in one of several swing states in this presidential election.

As you can imagine, it’s been a lot lately. We’re talking 15-20 political texts per day, signs on every street median, constant inflammatory TV commercials, stacks of partisan paper in my mailbox. I feel wanted in the worst way.

To be clear, I have already voted because I take my civic duty seriously. If you haven’t, I better see those “I voted” stickers on Election Day.

Even though my ballot has been counted, I am so worn out from the noise.

I bet you are too. In fact, I know you are, because part of my day job is talking people like you off the ledge. I’ve seen those panicked emails about preparing your portfolio for Election Day, unsure about what’s coming on the other side.

Sorting through the noise is one of the hardest things we have to do as an investor. Really, as a human in the 21st century.

There are a few reasons for this. We’ve never been bombarded with information like we have in this age of social media, news crawlers, and push notifications. Thanks, Zuck.

We’re not biologically equipped for this crazy environment, either. We may be modern-day humans, but we’re wired like hunter-gatherer Neanderthals. Our brains tell us to run from any whiff of risk, because 200,000 years ago, that risk was a charging bison coming for your life. Today, a red line falls a little too fast and you’re immediately in fight-or-flight mode.

Cut yourself some slack. Doom is our default setting, and we instinctively look for it everywhere.

And you know what? There’s a lot at stake in this election. Tax policy, immigration, reproductive rights. Maybe even democracy as we know it. I’d be lying if I said I haven’t indulged in a little doom scrolling lately.

The pre-election dread is not your fault.

Processing the dread, however, is your responsibility.

Processing is crucial, too. Prolonged dread doesn’t mix well in a market that’s risen more than 70% of the time in all 12-month periods since 1950. You have to be the fearless optimist that your brain, body, and surroundings beg you not to be – over and over again.

Contentious elections included. On average, November has been the best month of the year in election and non-election years.

With another potential interest rate cut this week and a reasonably stable economy, now may not be the best time to wallow in dread.

Even worse – you could miss a drop in prices. Yes, you read that right. We all talk about buying low and selling high. Well, folks, those painful stock slides are your rare chances to buy low if you can overcome your brain’s risk alarm. Or at the very least, they could be signs of something better on the other side.

If you sold after every big down day – let’s say a 2% drop – in the S&P 500 and bought in two weeks later when the coast is clear, you would’ve missed out on a third of gains over the past 20 years. No matter if the first move is up or down, you can’t give into the dread.

The stock market doesn’t care about your feelings. It doesn’t wait for your judgment. It moves regardless of if you’re ready or not. You need it more than it needs you – to build wealth, to beat inflation, to make it in this raging capitalism machine (unfortunately).

Politics shouldn’t dictate your portfolio. The stock market has soared and crashed under both Republican and Democratic administrations because, frankly, the Oval Office doesn’t wield as much power over the economy as individuals, businesses, and that cozy group of economists in D.C. known as the Fed. I talked more about this here.

Yet logic can’t fully extinguish the dread. You have to fight it in other ways.

You need to take care of yourself so you’re mentally sharp. Breathe. Relax your shoulders. Get eight hours of sleep. Limit your caffeine intake. Put your phone down. Do what you need to do to stay sane.

And most importantly, keep your bar for information low and bar for decision-making high. Decide when and how you’ll invest any extra money. Write it down. Get an accountability partner. Trust the numbers.

Light is coming. It always comes. And when it does, you’ll be more than ready to bask in it.

Because you – and your portfolio – are more resilient than you think.

Now go make a plan to vote if you haven’t already.

You can find your polling place here. And if you need a ride, Lyft is offering 50% off rides to the polls & the NAACP is offering to pay for Lyfts to the polls through Election Day.

You have no excuse.

Thanks for reading!

Callie

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